Brexit may push the world into recession says this economist, along with many others making dire predictions for the U.K. and the world.
It MAY, of course. But is it likely to?
We have never been very far from the brink of recession in the past 8 years. A massive inter-governmental act of printing money, together with a collective suspension of disbelief in the market ‘for fear of finding something worse’ is what is keeping us going. Sure, Brexit may be the nudge that pushes us into recession. Maybe.
Of course, it isn’t much fun writing or reading an article that says there will be short term uncertainty, but things will settle down shortly and the world will carry on.
Here are a few predictions using my crystal ball:
- The British public will realise the EU wasn’t the drain on the British tax payer they thought it was.
- And this divorce isn’t automatically going to make Britain Great again. And conversely, staying in the EU wasn’t what was blocking the Greatness.
- Farage will be dumped in the garage. The UKIP and others will not have any bogeymen left to blame and will crumble under the glare of expectations.
- Boris Johnson will become PM. And will leave office in ignominy.
- Scotland will ask for another referendum on the UK (not much of a prediction, it’s being talked about already).
- Scotland will not leave the UK, because the UK will come back into the EU.
- The EU as a group will get tougher on immigration.
- No other countries will leave the EU because of social reasons (e.g. immigration). Countries may leave due to economic pressures and inability to keep up with German discipline.